I have priorities, you know.

Yes, I could complete my procrastinated schoolwork, read some puritan poetry and cultivate my "intellect," but no -- where's the fun in that? Pop-culture madness takes precedence over the forced agenda of my American Literature professor. I can rationalize forever on how pop-culture is more relevant and important but...they would all be lies. So, without further bullshiting, I shall list the people who will have extreme Oscar anxiety for a little over a month (at least they can keep their sanity by looking forward to a guaranteed gift bag):

To gauge how "safe" I believe each prediction I make is, I will place the most likely at the top of each list, and the least possible at the bottom. And then I will name one alternate because I am that much of a wimp).

Best Picture:
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
Crash
Capote
Walk the Line

(alt: The Constant Gardener)
(I wish: The Squid and the Whale)

Best Director:
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis, Crash
David Cronenberg, A History of Violence
Fernando Mierelles, The Constant Gardener

(alt: Steven Spielberg, Munich)
(I wish: Wong Kar-Wai, 2046)

Best Actor:
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck
Ralph Fiennes, The Constant Gardener

(alt: Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow)
(I wish: Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale)

Best Actress:
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Charlize Theron, North Country
Gwenyth Paltrow, Proof

(alt: Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha)
(I wish: Emmanuelle Devos, Kings and Queen)

Best Supporting Actor:
George Clooney, Syriana
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Matt Dillon, Crash
(insert another Crash actor -- I'm such a dirty cheater, I know)
Frank Langella, Good Night, and Good Luck (ala Alan Alda, who I CALLED last year)

(alt: Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents)
(I wish: Jeffery Wright, either of the two movies I did not like regardless of his presence)

Best Supporting Actress:
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Catherine Keener, Capote
Amy Adams, Junebug
Frances McDormand, North Country

(alt: Maria Bello, A History of Violence)
(I wish: Brenda Blethyn, Pride and Prejudice/Ziyi Zhang, 2046)

Best Original Screenplay:
Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, Crash
George Clooney and Grant Henslov, Good Night, and Good Luck
Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale
Nick Park, Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Michael Haneke, Caché

(alt: Woody Allen, Match Point)
(I wish: Miranda July, Me and You and Everyone We Know)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Diana Ossana and Larry McMurty, Brokeback Mountain
Dan Futterman, Capote
Josh Olson, A History of Violence
Jeffery Caine, The Constant Gardener
Dennis and Mangold, Walk the Line

(alt: Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, Munich)
(I wish: Agnes Jaoui, Look at Me -- I think it is original, but I simply cannot pick a worthy adapted screenplay. Has the year been that bad?)

Well, I shall see how off I am bright and early tomorrow at 8:30 EST. Last year I went 35/40 (the pride of my 2004 predictions: Alda's predicted apperance and Giamatti's predicted absence). This year, I'll guess that I go 33/40 (I'm losing my powers!).